pesd2025191001

	PRESENT ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Volume 20, Issue no.1/ 2026

	Title: Implementation of an early warning system for the management of hydrological extremes at the Singrobo-Ahaouaty hydroelectric dam on the River Bandama (Côte d’Ivoire)
	Authors : Kouakou Charles KONAN 1 , Ionut MINEA 2, Zamblé Armand TRA BI 1, Kouame Kouman Raoul FOKOUO 3, Adou Bérenger KOUACOU 3 1 UFR- Communication and Society (CS), Alassane Ouattara University - Côte d’Ivoire, 2 Faculty of Geography and Geology, Alexandru Ioan Cuza, University of Iasi - Romania, 3 Felix Houphouet Boigny University - Côte d’Ivoire E-mail : * Corresponding author: charlykouakou26@gmail.com
	https://doi.org/10.47743/pesd2026201012
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	Abstract Against a backdrop of increasing climate variability, hydraulic infrastructure is becoming increasingly vulnerable in the last decades. The Singrobo-Ahouaty hydroelectric dam, situated in the Bandama catchment in Côte d’Ivoire, is particularly exposed to hydrological variations. The study therefore aims to characterise extreme flows and define appropriate warning thresholds. Hydrometric data for the period 1981-2017 were analysed to evaluate hydrological extreme. The methodology is based on a frequency analysis of maximum annual flows (QMAX) and minimum annual flows (QMNA). The assumptions of homogeneity, stationarity and independence of the time series were tested using the Wilcoxon, Kendall and Wald-Wolfowitz tests. Six probability distributions (Exponential, Lognormal, Gumbel, Gamma, Weibull and Pearson Type III) were then compared on the basis of graphical fit, the chi-squared (?²) test, and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC).The results show that the log-normal distribution is the best model for peak flows, whilst the Gumbel distribution is the most suitable for low-water flows. The estimated quantiles indicate that the 100-year flood reaches 643 m³/s and the 200-year flood 712 m³/s. For low water levels, the 5-year return period flow (QMNA-5) is estimated at 20.7 m³/s. Based on these reference values, operational thresholds have been defined: for high water levels, a watch threshold of 578.7 m³/s and a crisis threshold of 707 m³/s; for low water levels, a watch threshold of 22.7 m³/s and a crisis threshold of 18.6 m³/s.

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